Will a new renewable energy source (fusion, advanced geothermal, or other) achieve commercial-scale electricity generation before the end of 2028?

Commercial-Scale Renewable Breakthrough by 2028?

Fusion energy and advanced geothermal technologies are approaching viability. This prediction asks if a new renewable source will achieve meaningful commercial electricity generation before 2028.

The 'Lab to Market' Challenge

The vote is close. Fusion companies like Commonwealth Fusion and TAE Technologies have made impressive lab breakthroughs, but scaling to commercial grid power is distinct. Advanced geothermal (like Fervo Energy) shows promise but remains in pilot phases. While a demonstration plant reaching commercial grid connection is plausible by 2028, full commercial scale (megawatt-level sustained generation) is less certain. The most likely scenario is a successful pilot or prototype rather than established commercial operation.