General
Will a 'Mega-Tech' company (top 10 by market cap) see its stock price fall by 75% or more in a single calendar year before 2030?
A finance prediction on a major, sudden collapse in valuation for one of the world's largest, most entrenched technology firms.
82 total votes
Analysis
The Velocity of the Bubble
In the mid-2020s, a few large tech companies saw their valuations soar on the back of massive investments and optimism about Artificial Intelligence (AI) (simulated late 2025 context). However, a stock price crash of **$75\%$ or more in a single year** for an established Mega-Tech firm (like Microsoft, Apple, or Alphabet) is a severe event, typically reserved for massive accounting fraud or a total collapse of a core business model. The $60\%$ 'Yes' consensus is driven by the extreme concentration and frothiness of the current AI-driven valuations (Source 9.2). If the expected revenue from AI does not materialize quickly enough—the 'AI bubble bursts'—the resulting correction could be swift and deep enough to achieve the **$75\%** fall before the end of 2030**.