Will a major ransomware group (e.g., LockBit successor) successfully execute a 1-week shutdown of a G7 nation's primary electrical grid before the end of 2030?

The Grid Cyber Threat

The threat to critical infrastructure, particularly electrical grids, is rapidly growing, driven by state-sponsored actors and sophisticated ransomware groups (CISA, simulated late 2025 context). While major grids have resilience built in, the 1-week **'shutdown'** threshold is extreme. The even split reflects the high stakes: the complexity of modern grid systems makes them vulnerable ('Yes'), but the immense resources dedicated by G7 nations to defensive cybersecurity and the established protocols for rapid recovery ('No') act as powerful deterrents. The potential for a **regional, multi-day blackout** is high, but a 1-week shutdown of a *primary* national grid is a true black swan event.