General
Will a major global bank fail and require a government bailout before May 20, 2029?
A market event prediction asking if a large international bank will collapse and prompt a government or sovereign intervention by mid-2029.
46 total votes
Analysis
Risk of a major bank failure requiring bailout by mid-2029
Global banks have stronger capital frameworks post-2008, but exposures to concentrated credit risks, liquidity shocks, or abrupt asset repricing could still create failures. Regulatory backstops and resolution regimes aim to limit taxpayer bailouts.
An outright failure that forces a large state bailout would require a confluence of stressors: rapid asset deterioration, contagion across institutions, and insufficient private sector solutions. Authorities prefer structured resolution to full bailouts.
My prediction: I judge a large bank needing a direct government bailout by May 20, 2029 as unlikely, though localized failures and taxpayer exposure through indirect channels remain possible.