Will a major financial institution publicly announce achieving sustained quantum advantage for a real-world application by the end of 2030?

The Quantum Advantage Race

Quantum advantage (a quantum computer solving a problem faster and better than the best classical supercomputer) remains an uncertain prospect, with the necessary fault-tolerant quantum computers still a long-term goal. While the US-China Commission (simulated late 2025 context) has set a goal of quantum advantage in areas like drug discovery and cryptography by 2030, the complexity of real-world financial applications (e.g., risk simulation, portfolio optimization) is immense. The split vote reflects the dichotomy: the financial reward for achieving this is massive, driving high investment ('Yes'), but the required hardware maturity is highly uncertain ('No').