Will a global treaty on autonomous naval drones be signed by 2030?

Ships Without Sailors

The oceans have become restless not from storms but from policy uncertainty. Autonomous naval drones glide like metallic shadows, each nation experimenting, posturing, and probing. The absence of formal coordination makes every splash feel like a question mark.

My prediction leans toward a hesitant diplomatic tango, where governments acknowledge risk but hesitate to give up strategic opacity. Yet as incidents accumulate—misidentification, territorial ambiguity, or disrupted shipping lanes—I expect the incentive for cooperation to rise.

By 2030, a treaty might emerge, but its scope will likely be narrow and symbolic, serving more as a statement of intent than a rigid rulebook. Still, even a light net cast across the world’s waters could reduce the chances of unwanted escalation.