Politics

Will a G7 nation national election (Presidential or General) result in a single party winning a majority of seats with <35% of the popular vote before 2028?

A politics prediction on the increasing effect of electoral mechanics (like First-Past-the-Post) leading to highly disproportionate results.

Yes 41%Maybe 12%No 48%

86 total votes

Analysis

G7 Election: Majority of Seats with <35% Popular Vote by 2028


This prediction highlights the potential for extreme disproportionality in G7 nations that use non-proportional voting systems (UK, Canada, US). It states that a national election in a G7 country will result in a **single party winning a parliamentary/congressional majority** of seats with less than **35% of the total national popular vote** before the end of 2028.

The Fragmentation Effect

The high **'Yes'** vote is rooted in political fragmentation. The rise of multiple smaller parties splits the vote, allowing the leading party to win many seats with a mere plurality. This phenomenon is a well-documented outcome of the First-Past-the-Post system, which rewards geographic efficiency and is highly likely to occur in one of the G7 nations by 2028.

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