General
Will a commercial quantum computer achieve 'quantum advantage' for a high-value industrial application (e.g., drug design) before the end of 2028?
A technology prediction on the first practical demonstration of a quantum computer solving a real-world business problem faster than a classical supercomputer.
36 total votes
Analysis
Quantum Advantage: Industrial Use by 2028?
The concept of 'quantum advantage' means a quantum computer performs a task practically impossible for the best classical supercomputers. While 'quantum supremacy' (solving an abstract problem) has been achieved, this prediction focuses on a *commercial* high-value industrial application, such as optimizing a supply chain or simulating a complex molecule for drug discovery.
The NISQ Challenge
The leaning toward 'No' reflects the enduring challenge of the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era. Building stable, error-corrected qubits remains the major barrier. While hardware improves rapidly, creating a machine powerful enough to perform industrial-grade simulations *and* proving it is genuinely faster than classical methods is a high bar, which may not be fully cleared until 2030 or later.