Will a biological male athlete openly identifying as trans women be permitted to compete in the female category of an Olympic event at the Los Angeles 2028 Games?

Trans Inclusion at LA28: Policy Prediction

This prediction asks if a biological male athlete identifying as a trans woman will be permitted to compete in the female category at the 2028 Olympics.

The Shift to Open Categories

The strong **'No'** vote reflects the current trend among major International Federations (World Athletics, World Aquatics, UCI Cycling). These bodies have moved toward 'protected' female categories (excluding those who went through male puberty) and 'open' categories for all others. The IOC has largely deferred to individual federations. Given the tightening of eligibility rules in the sports most likely to have trans entrants (running, swimming, cycling), it is highly probable that the 2028 policies will effectively bar this participation in the female category, favoring 'Open' categories instead.